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Oscar predictions 2025: Who will win vs. who should win this year
Will Win, Should Win: “Anora”The sensational stripper Cinderella story has won a convincing combo of lead-up prizes: The Cannes Palme d’Or, Producers Guild, Directors Guild, Writers Guild and Critics Choice. Possible upset “Conclave,” about the election of a new pope, took the BAFTA and SAG, yes, but it’s the colder, thinkier movie of the two. Will Win: Demi Moore, “The Substance”In recent years, the Oscars have loved feel-good career awards. Think Michelle Yeoh and Brendan Fraser. This would be 62-year-old Moore’s first Oscar ever, and she hasn’t been shy about that. The one thing going against G.I. Jane is the divisiveness of her body-horror flick. That could swing it to Madison or even Torres.Should Win: Mikey Madison, “Anora”The 25-year-old phenom is pure magic in a performance that, while surrounded by superb actors, carries the movie of the year.Will Win, Should Win: Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown“The 29-year-old actor winning the SAG Award felt like a big deal. Eighteen of the last 20 have gone on to win the Oscar. Yes, the also-excellent Adrien Brody of “The Brutalist” has gobbled up everything else, but those honors have been from critics and overseas voters (the Globes are more pinky-out than ever). It’s a toss-up, but I can’t help but feel that the 80% domestic Academy voters are somewhat indifferent to Brody’s movie.Will Win, Should Win: Zoe Saldana, “Emilia Pérez”“Emilia Pérez” has been hit by controversy after controversy. But well-liked Saldana has kept winning regardless. She gives an intense and deeply felt turn as a lawyer whisked on a musical (and soap-operatic) journey. Will Win, Should Win: Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain“The quick-talking “Succession” star is sublime as a charismatic cousin