In a rare situation for a Disney tentpole, particularly a live-action title based on a treasured classic animated musical, The Little Mermaid looks to bank more at the domestic box office ultimately than overseas, with $300M-$350M U.S./Canada to $260M abroad.
At that level, per finance sources, off a reported $250M production cost and $140M global marketing spend, The Little Mermaid could very well break-even.
However, anything in the low $400M global threshold and this fish is apt to be sinking to a loss of around $20M. “Not a huge disappointment, but a disappointment, nonetheless,” one film finance insider told Deadline, given the blockbuster streak often associated with Disney.
The studio’s summer slate remains in a precarious position after it boldly world premiered two major titles in Cannes to lackluster reviews: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (49% Rotten Tomatoes) and Pixar’s Elemental (58% Rotten, $40M projected U.S.
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