A new poll published ahead of the Greater Manchester mayoral election next week suggests we could be in store for a surprise.
Labour's Andy Burnham, who has served as the city-region's mayor since 2017, is expected to cruise towards a third term in office.
But the battle for second place looks set to throw up some surprising results. The poll by More in Common predicts that Conservative candidate Laura Evans will finish in fourth place, three percentage points behind ex-Tory Dan Barker who has defected to Reform UK.
Independent candidate Nick Buckley, who stood for Reform at the last mayoral election in 2021, is also polling at nine per cent - the same level as the Tories - but is predicted to come third.
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