Why ‘Phantom of the Opera’ is Closing on Broadway — And How It Will Rise Again

variety.com:

Gordon Cox Theater Editor Ask Cameron Mackintosh if “The Phantom of the Opera” will be back, and he doesn’t play coy. “Of course it will return,” he says. “All the great musicals do.” But the British mega-producer, whose credits include “Cats” and “Les Misérables,” also speaks candidly about the forces pushing “Phantom,” the longest-running show on Broadway, to end its record run on April 16 after 35 years.

Even before lockdown, the Andrew Lloyd Webber musical, which had fallen into a boom-or-bust pattern of sales fluctuations based on seasonal tourism influxes, seemed to be reaching the end of its lifespan. “Over the years, the number of good weeks at the box office started to shrink,” Mackintosh says. “Some of the really bad weeks, we lost a lot of money, particularly in New York.” At the same time, the pandemic pushed up expenses at an accelerated pace.

Prior to 2020, expenses would generally rise 3% to 4% annually. But according to “Phantom” general manager Aaron Lustbader, after lockdown they escalated by about 15%, driven by COVID costs like testing and increased staffing as well as hikes in security and advertising.

Currently, keeping the show up and running means spending $950,000 a week. “Now you look at a $1 million week at the box office and you think, ‘Oh, thank God, we’ve broken even.’ That’s a huge mental shift,” Mackintosh says. “The margins have shrunk hugely.” Meanwhile, post-lockdown sales slowed across Broadway, dampened by early performance disruptions, changes in consumer lifestyles and the lagging return of international tourists and city visitors, particularly suburbanites.