SAG Awards Analysis: Actors Throw A Late Inning Curveball With Cast Victory For ‘Conclave,’ ‘Anora’ Shut Out And Lead Acting Wins For Timothée Chalamet And Demi Moore

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Well, it ain’t over until the fat lady sings. Not sure who said that, or just who will be singing after this long and winding road to Oscar is over, but we will have to wait another week after a later-than-ever SAG Awards ceremony just said “not so fast, Anora.” A week after losing the Best Film BAFTA to Conclave, Sean Baker’s DGA, PGA, WGA, Critics Choice, and Palme d’Or winning comedy lost again in the sometimes Oscar-predictive Screen Actors Guild Outstanding Cast Award race to – you guessed it – Conclave, winning the same award it took at Critics Choice two weeks ago and a movie that, with Pope Francis in critical condition, is becoming more timely by the day.

This would be equivalent to a nuclear bomb going off if only SAG had been earlier, or Oscar had extended its voting period. But the fact is Academy Award ballots are already in the hands of PriceWaterhouse accountants and the actual outcome of Sunday night’s SAG awards will have zero effect.

Plus it comes a day after Anora won three Indie Spirits, including Best Film, to keep its roll going. Whatever die is cast has already been cast, but the Academy’s preferential balloting system for only the Best Picture category (as opposed to their other 22 categories which are straight up and down votes), looks for a consensus winner, a well-liked contender, and all along Conclave is the one movie that seems to have few detractors.

Could it sneak in? In a season where Emilia Perez started off as the favorite with a near-record 13 nominations before controversy over star Karla Sofia Gascon’s past social media footprint stalled its momentum and then DGA, PGA and WGA wins for Anora suddenly made that NEON movie seem inevitable, this new twist presents a reasonable