Oscar Nominees By the Numbers
variety.comClayton Davis With the Oscars just days away, the awards pundits and Hollywood whisperers are trying to read all the tea leaves and figure out what’s winning in all 23 categories.A longtime friend and former writing colleague, Mark Johnson at Awards Daily, recently broke down the art of predicting, putting them into four simple rationales: data analysis, cultural zeitgeist, conversations with AMPAS members and gut instinct.The data piece is what’s driven by Film Twitter, while the cultural zeitgeist you see through viral videos on TikTok (for example, “We Don’t Talk About Bruno” from “Encanto,” isn’t nominated for Oscar but helps “Dos Oruguitas.”)This year’s crop of nominees represents interesting record breakers and trends in the Oscar canon.
So let’s break it all down and how it could hint to potential winners in the wings. In the acting categories, nine are first-time nominees: Jessie Buckley (“The Lost Daughter”), Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”), Aunjanue Ellis (“King Richard”), Ciarán Hinds (“Belfast”), Troy Kotsur (“CODA”), Kirsten Dunst, Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee (“The Power of the Dog”) and Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”).Will Smith is the second Black creative to be nominated for acting and producing in the same year for “King Richard.” Jessica Chastain, nominated for lead actress for “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” also serves as a producer for her film.
Only two people in history have produced themselves to acting wins — Laurence Olivier for “Hamlet” (1948) and Frances McDormand for “Nomadland” (2020).Neon’s “Flee” is the first film nominated for animated, documentary and international feature.
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