Final Oscar Predictions: Could ‘Emilia Pérez’ Make History and Will the Directors Branch Snub Women?

variety.com:

Clayton Davis Senior Awards Editor In the year without a frontrunner, the doors are still wide open. I’m predicting three films will tie for the most nominations with 10 each: “Conclave,” “Emilia Pérez” and “Wicked.” Jacques Audiard’s crime musical “Emilia Pérez” is poised to dominate, and if it can tack on a tech nom or two, the Netflix film could become the most nominated non-English-language film in history, surpassing “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” (2000) and “Roma” (2018).

The streamer’s primary awards pony could potentially go even further. On an ideal nomination day, if it lands nods in all of its “on the bubble” categories — such as cinematography, sound, and two extra bids for supporting actress (Selena Gomez) and original song — it could secure 14 nominations, tying with “All About Eve” (1950), “Titanic” (1997), and “La La Land” (2016) as the most-nominated films of all time.

Notably, “La La Land,” also a musical, is the only one to lose the best picture. At the heart of “Emilia Pérez” is Karla Sofía Gascón’s spellbinding performance, which could also make history as the first openly transgender acting nominee.

However, with such a competitive lead actress race, possible vote-splitting among her co-star Zoe Saldaña (who may get elevated from supporting to lead), and critical darlings like Marianne Jean-Baptiste (“Hard Truths”) and Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”) surging in the final days of voting, this could be a year where any of the presumed “locks” is absent on nomination morning.