Emmy Predictions: Lead Actress (Drama) — Kathy Bates Out Front for Network TV; Keri Russell and Nicola Coughlan Give Netflix Awards Boost

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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis.

The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender.

As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday. Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series Commentary (Updated March 28, 2025): Kathy Bates has returned triumphantly to network television with her role in “Matlock.’ She delivers a masterclass in gravitas and wit that reminds audiences why she’s one of our most beloved veterans.

Her Critics Choice win for the CBS drama shows, she’s one of the frontrunners. It’s been a decade since a woman from a network TV show has won this category — Viola Davis for ABC’s “How to Get Away with Murder,” and 11 years since CBS has taken home this category with Julianna Margulies for “The Good Wife” in 2014.

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