The Math Behind Oscars' Biggest Best Picture Upsets Ever
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hollywoodreporter.comNomadland might appear to have Oscar best picture trophy all wrapped up. With Chloé Zhao’s nominations for directing, writing and editing, plus top honors from the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, Producers Guild and a host of others, the final Academy Awards category seems like a foregone conclusion.
But is it? In the past two decades, Crash and Spotlight, respectively, shocked front-runners Brokeback Mountain and The Revenant.
And who can forget how Moonlight emerged over La La Land? In total, there have been 15 upsets for best picture over the past 72 years, according to a mathematical model I built using historical Oscar data.
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